Prefer a podcast? Press play to start perfecting your process âŻď¸
Key Takeaways:Â
Separate the quality of your move from the luck of the draw.
Trade âwhat ifâ spirals for probabilistic thinking.
Focus on building a solid process instead of predicting outcomes.
Thereâs no such thing as 100% certainty, only degrees of expected value.
If historyâs written by the victors, no wonder weâre trained to focus on the final score. We see the glossy IPO or the corner office and assume the path there was a straight flush. This creates a specific kind of outcome bias that acts like a psychological invisible fence for many, especially for women. If we aren't 100% certain weâre going to crush it, we don't even pull up a seat at the table.Â
But hereâs the reality check: waiting for a sure thing is just a sure way to fold your best years.
The âResultingâ Trap: Don't Be a Sucker for the Scoreboard
In poker, the worst thing you can do is judge a decision by its ending instead of its logic. We call this resulting. Itâs that toxic habit of thinking youâre a genius because you got lucky on a bad bet, or (more likely for us) assuming youâre a total disaster because a brilliant move didn't pay off immediately.
When we focus only on the result, weâre letting chance take the credit for our skill. True moxie is separating the quality of your move from the luck of the draw. The goal isn't to never lose but to build a decision-making process so bulletproof that you win the season, even if you lose the night.
Youâre at a party. You see a notable person youâve been dying to meet. Theyâre alone for 60 seconds. You have a 70% chance of a killer convo and a 30% chance theyâre a total grump who gives you nothing. Whatâs the move?
Perfecting Your Process Not Chasing PerfectionÂ
âWhat makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good processâŚ.â â Annie Duke, Thinking in Bets
In this game, we don't go off vibes; we move on math. Try swapping these potential pitfalls for these strategic pivots to really level up your game:Â
"What If" Spirals. You spend all your mental energy obsessing over the worst-case scenarios until youâre too paralyzed to make a move.
Use Probabilistic Thinking. Trade "What if?" for "How likely?" Shift from fearing a single outcome to weighing a range of possibilities. If the worst-case is a 5% fluke, stop giving it 90% of your headspace.
Guesswork Gambles. You make a choice based on a gut feeling and spend the next week hoping it works out. Guessing is for spectators; calculation is for leaders.
Use Calculate Expected Value (EV). If a project has a 10x payoff but only a 60% success rate, that is a +EV move. You make that bet every single time, even if you lose the first few tries. Math over mood, always.
Safe Wins Only. You only take on projects where the outcome is 100% guaranteed. If you never lose a hand, you aren't playing for high enough stakes.
Try Expanding Your Range. Intentionally play one high-variance hand this month â maybe an unorthodox pitch or trying out a new hobby. If the logic is sound but the experiment fails, count it as a process win.
Presentation Panics. One colleague looks confused, and you immediately think your entire strategy is a disaster.
Try Reading the Tells. A playerâs physical cues signal their weaknesses and strengths. Donât let one confused face dictate how you approach the rest of the room. Read the power players. If theyâre leaning in, stay aggressive.
Negotiation Freezes. You get a "not right now" on a raise and assume youâve hit a dead end.
Use Information Mining. Sometimes you bet just to see what the other person is holding. Treat that "no" as the price of admission to see your boss's cards. If they truly can't commit to a permanent raise, try a new route. Maybe you ask for a performance-based bonus from a side pot of discretionary funds or extra paid time off. Â
Moving From Resulting to StakingÂ
Think about who benefits when you over-prepare until youâre too tired to play or stay in that safe win loop that keeps you invisible. Did you work this hard to be a background character in your own career?
The next time youâre facing a big move and that old "What if?" anxiety starts creeping in, look at your cards, trust your math, and shove your chips into the middle. History doesnât remember the people who played it safe; it remembers the women who knew their value and werenât afraid to bet on it.